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Ladder of Inference

A one-page Ladder of Inference — Chris Argyris' tool for catching how a snap judgment gets built. A reaction feels like plain fact, but it's really the top of a ladder you climbed in a split second: from the raw data anyone could see, up through the details you selected, the meaning you added, the assumptions you made, the conclusion you drew, and the belief it hardened into — until you act on it. This sheet lays the ladder out as seven rungs, action at the top and observable data at the foot, so you can trace a strong reaction back down to what actually happened. Fill it after a conflict, a harsh judgment of someone, or a decision you can't quite justify, and you'll usually find the leap sitting one or two rungs up — a meaning or assumption you never checked. Print it blank to walk a situation down the ladder by hand.

Portrait
1 page
Reflection

Best for: Slowing down a strong reaction or judgment to see the assumptions and leaps between the facts and your conclusion.

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A still life that evokes the Ladder of Inference

Build your ladder of inference

See how you got to what you think.

A snap judgment feels like fact, but it's the top of a ladder you climbed without noticing. Start at the bottom with the raw data anyone could see, then climb rung by rung — what you selected, the meaning you added, your assumptions, conclusion, belief, and the action you took. Seeing the climb lets you check the leap.

How it works

Name the situation — the reaction you want to trace.
Start at the bottom — the facts, not your read of them.
Climb one rung at a time — up to two lines each.

Portrait, one page. Leave rungs blank to fill in by hand.

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Name the situation.

The reaction, judgment, or decision you want to trace back to the facts.

Situation

Title

Subtitle (optional)

Climb the ladder, bottom to top.

Up to two lines per rung. Start with the facts and work upward.

1 · Observable data (the raw facts anyone could see)

2 · Selected data (the details you paid attention to)

3 · Meanings (what you read into it)

4 · Assumptions (what you took as given, often unnoticed)

5 · Conclusions (the conclusion you drew)

6 · Beliefs (what this hardened into)

7 · Actions (what you did — or are about to do)

Start at the bottom — write the raw facts anyone could see, then climb one rung at a time.

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Ladder of Inference filled example preview — Filled example

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We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

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Decisive

Chip Heath, Dan Heath

A better decision is rarely the loudest option. It is the one that survives alternatives, evidence, distance, and a plan for being wrong.

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Nonviolent Communication

Marshall B. Rosenberg

Behind every judgment is a clumsy expression of an unmet need.

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Ladder of Inference