The most-loved lines from Carl Sagan, drawn from 1 book in the library.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Sagan's best-known rule sets the bar by the claim, not by how much we want it to be true. A friend's new job needs little proof; an alien abduction or a miracle cure needs a great deal. Match your scrutiny to the size of the claim.
A claim that cannot be tested, even in principle, tells you nothing.
Sagan's dragon in the garage is invisible, floats, and breathes heatless fire, so every test fails and the believer has an excuse ready. When each objection meets a new special exception, the claim has stopped saying anything about the world.
Wherever possible, get independent confirmation of the facts.
One witness, one study or one source is a starting point, not a conclusion. Look for confirmation from people who have no stake in the answer and did not get it from the same place.
Spin more than one hypothesis, and do not fall in love with your own.
The first explanation that occurs to you is rarely the only one. List the alternatives, then think of tests that could tell them apart, and notice when you defend an idea simply because it is yours.
Arguments from authority carry little weight; at most there are experts.
Authorities have been wrong before, and a title is not evidence. Experts are worth hearing for their reasons and their record, so ask what the evidence is, not who believes it.
Count the misses, not just the hits.
Psychics, predictions and remedies look impressive when we remember the times they worked and forget the rest. Sagan calls this observational selection; the cure is to tally both columns.
Science is a candle in the dark because it is built to find its own mistakes.
What sets science apart is not certainty but error correction: claims are exposed to tests and rivals until the weak ones fail. Sagan argues a free society needs citizens who think this way, or it will be at the mercy of whoever sounds most sure.
Skepticism and wonder belong together.
Sagan wants a mind open enough to take new ideas seriously and rigorous enough to sort them. Too much openness lets in nonsense; too much doubt lets in nothing new. Practise both on the same claim.
HourLife turns these ideas into a daily system — goals, habits, focus, and reflection in one private place.
