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Simple Decision Trees

draw the fork before you take it

Most hard choices arrive as a yes or a no. That's really one option and its absence. Sketch the choice as a tree instead: a few roads out, what's likely down each one, and what you'd do if it went wrong. Ten minutes and a scrap of paper are enough.

  • Easy to start
  • Medium impact
  • Learn it in 1 week
  • Ten minutes a decision

Should I take the job in Leeds?

Which way should I grow next year?

The first question has one road and a turning you don't take. The second has as many roads as you can find.
one question, three signposts
A decision drawn as a tree of signposts At the top, “Take the Leeds job? yes or no” is crossed out and rewritten as “Which way to grow next year?”. Three signposts branch from it: Leeds job, Lead role here, and Night course, the one nearly missed. Under each, what is likely and one way it goes badly. Leeds job: more pay and a new city, or a lonely year. Lead role here: a yes or a clear no, or a no and a wait. Night course: slow but it's mine, or too tired, I quit. The lead role is ringed, because asking first keeps Leeds open. At the bottom, the decision: ask for the lead role, and look back on 1 March. Take the Leeds job? yes · no [whether or not: one road, really] Which way to grow next year? Leeds job Lead role here Night course [nearly missed] likely more pay, a new city if it goes badly a lonely year likely a yes, or a clear no if it goes badly a no, and wait likely slow, but it's mine if it goes badly tired, I quit [asking first keeps Leeds open] decided, with a date Ask for the lead role. look back on 1 March

Nothing here needs a number. The tree's job is to make you see the roads you weren't looking at, and what you'd do if your favourite one turned out badly.

The next time you're stuck on a choice

Draw it in five moves.

Pen and paper, or the drawer further down. The tree only has to be good enough to show you what you're choosing between.

  1. Ask “which one?”, not “whether?”

    Write the question at the top. If it can be answered yes or no, ask what you're really trying to get, and rewrite it as a choice between ways of getting it.

    “Should I quit?” becomes “What would make my working week better?”

  2. Add the branch you nearly missed

    Draw a line for each option you already have, then find one more. Ask: if none of these were possible, what would I do? Could I do two of them at once? Who has faced this before, and what did they do?

  3. Write what's down each road

    Under every branch, write what will most likely happen, then one way it could go badly. Keep it to a few words. If you can't picture a branch at all, that's a sign to find out more before you choose it.

  4. Find the branch you'd regret least

    Imagine yourself a year down each road, after the bad version. Which would you mind least? Notice which branches keep the others open: you can usually ask before you move, but rarely move back.

  5. Choose, and set a date to look back

    Pick a branch and write it at the bottom of the tree, with a date to look again. Keep the drawing. On the day, you'll see what you expected, not what you remember expecting.

Try it on yours

Draw your fork.

Type the question and the roads out of it. The tree draws itself as you go. When you have two or more, tap the one you'd regret least.

your question

    Nothing you type is saved or sent anywhere. Copy the tree onto paper, or take a screenshot, before you leave the page.

    Why one more branch matters

    Most decisions have one road.

    • 15%of 78 decisions by senior managers involved looking for a new option beyond the ones already on the table.
    • 29%of decision makers, in a later study, considered more than one alternative at all.

    Paul Nutt, at Ohio State University, spent decades studying how organisations make decisions. In a study published in 1984 he followed 78 decisions by senior managers in American and Canadian organisations, and found that few of them ever went looking for another option.

    It showed in how they turned out. In one of his studies, decisions made with a single alternative were judged failures more than half the time. Where at least two were weighed, about two-thirds were judged successes.

    Failure is four times more likely when decision makers embrace the first idea they come across.
    Paul Nutt, on a study of more than 400 decisions, 2002

    The idea

    Why it works.

    A yes-or-no question quietly limits you to one option. Your attention goes to whether that one is good enough, and the others never get a hearing. Drawing branches forces the question “what else?”, and the answer is often better than either yes or no.

    Writing a bad version under each branch does a second job. It's much easier to choose a road when you already know what you'd do if it went wrong, and it shows you which branches you can try without closing the others.

    Keep it light

    Habits that help.

    • Three branches is plenty. More than five, and you're listing, not choosing.
    • Try “and”, not just “or”. Some of the best branches are two options done together.
    • Draw it before you talk it over. Then ask someone which branch is missing.
    • Small choices don't need trees. Save it for the ones you'll still feel in a year.

    Go deeper

    Keep going.

    Practise this in HourLife.

    In Decisions: Options with leanings. Write down a decision, weigh the options, mark the one you chose, and come back later to record how it turned out.

    Download on the App Store Download on the Mac App Store How Decisions works in HourLife