Annie Duke

“Outcome quality and decision quality are different measurements.”

“A belief should carry a confidence level, not a costume of certainty.”

“Resulting turns luck into proof and hides weak process behind wins.”

“The best decision makers invite dissent before identity hardens around an answer.”

“Base rates reduce the drama of the current story.”

“A written prediction makes later learning harder to fake.”

“Small reversible bets beat heroic certainty when information is incomplete.”